Almost every summer one of the 30 NBA team manages to steal a restricted free agent from another team. The circumstances always vary from ridiculous offers or a team no longer wanting the player. Last year both Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings switched teams as restricted free agents due to sign and trade agreements. This summer brings yet another interesting crop of restricted free agents. Let’s take a look at who can be stolen and how:
Greg Monroe: How often is a team willing to let a 15 point 9 rebound big man go? Because this may just happen in Detroit. The Pistons have a problem because Monroe and Josh Smith play the same position. The Pistons signed Josh Smith to a four year/54 million dollar contract and with Monroe seeking a max contract it’s hard to justify paying these guys such a crazy amount of money to split a position. The Pistons have tried Monroe at center and Josh Smith at small forward but both men are true power forwards. Rumors have also floated around that Monroe does not want to stay in Detroit. Josh Smith is one of the most untradeable contracts in the NBA so the Pistons have to decide whether they want to commit all that money to two big men playing the same position. Greg Monroe may be the most sought after restricted free agent in the group. He’s a young big guy who can learn to become a better defender still. Expect teams like Charlotte, Washington, Cleveland, and even San Antonio to show some interest. Monroe would be great as the Tim Duncan successor for the Spurs. The question is whether any team is willing to pay him the max, which is the number his agent is looking for. Greg Monroe is most likely done in Detroit. The Pistons can risk re-signing him and then trying to trade him at the trade deadline next year but their best bet is to work out a sign and trade with another team in order to get something out of the deal. This all changes if Detroit is able to trade Josh Smith (unlikely). Anything can really happen with the eccentric Stan Van Gundy running things now.
Evan Turner: The man is quite a mystery. After a decent half season in Philadelphia he has barely played since being traded to Indiana. Indiana is likely not to retain him. Holding onto him will require a ridiculously high cap hold and he has just not fit in since being traded. Some team is bound to take a risk on him but it seems Turner is really the type of player who could only fit certain systems. It’s going to take the right kind of coach to get productivity out of him. While he is a strong rebounder for his position and is flexible position-wise he really has no other strengths at this point. His shooting is spotty, his defense is decent at best, and his playmaking is nowhere near what it was supposed to be. He needs a lot of work but as of now he’s a bust. But he’s a bust I expect someone to take a risk on. He’s still very young and has time to improve.
Ed Davis: He is an intriguing young prospect. He’s never gotten a good chance to truly show his abilities. Once he started doing well with the Raptors he was traded to Memphis. There were times when he was touted as the Zach Randolph replacement but that’s starting to look less and less likely. Randolph is still an important player for Memphis and several sources have indicated there is a mutual desire to sign an extension. With Randolph still playing very well and due to other factors no one can seem to figure out, Ed Davis hasn’t gotten a lot of playing time. The coaches don’t seem to believe in him. His minutes have dropped from 24.6 his rookie year to 15.2 this year. His numbers are not anything special but he has defensive abilities. The potential is there and it’s hard to critique a guy getting uneven minutes just about every season. Perhaps the strategy in Memphis was to keep his talents hidden hoping another team doesn’t see the potential and throw a good offer out there. Most likely, however, Ed Davis is gone. The Memphis Grizzlies are too close to the tax especially if Randolph exercises his player option next year. The Grizzlies will have to focus on adding cheap impact players as most of their money is tied up. The city loves Z-Bo so it is very unlikely he walks away or is not re-signed. With Randolph taking so much playing time at the power forward position it is tough to justify paying Ed Davis anything over five million a year and chances are some team will give him six or more because of his age and potential. The Charlotte Hornets could decide to pair the young big man next to Al Jefferson for defensive purposes although this would clog the lane. One team he could thrive on is Washington. Because Nene can step out and hit that 10-15 foot jumper they can work together. Playing with a pass first point guard like John Wall would do wonders for Davis’s game and confidence. There are plenty of teams who would be willing to gamble on a young big man especially with the Grizzlies in the weak position of being so close to the tax after filling out their roster.
Gordon Hayward: There’s already one team with serious interest, the Boston Celtics. This contract will basically come down to who wants him more. Hayward had a down year but it’s to be expected with his surrounding cast. Hayward is not a no. 1 option and that’s the position he was put in this year. The Utah Jazz has plenty of cap room this summer and can easily sign Hayward to any kind of contract but they have to decide how badly they want to keep him. Do they still hold onto him if Boston offers him 44 million over 4 years and offers Jeff Green in a sign and trade? Or one of Boston’s valuable first round picks? And yes Gordon Hayward is at least getting 44 million. If Tyreke Evans can get it, so can he. Utah is most likely going to retain him as he’s one of their only valuable pieces at this time but the there’s definitely mutual interest between Hayward and Boston, especially with the chance to play under former Butler coach Brad Stevens.
Greivis Vasquez: This pass first point guard has really thrived in Toronto. He is best coming off the bench so he will most likely be signed as a sixth man. He started for New Orleans where he put up good numbers but was too much of a defensive liability. Toronto could potentially lose both their point guards this off season but seeing as likely they are going to pay Kyle Lowry 10-12 million a year for four years it is hard seeing the Raptors cough up significant money for a backup point guard. They could potentially sign him or match any offers and then trade him but this is a risky signing. His strong performance in Toronto could simply be the product of a contract year. His shooting has been unusually good this year and it’s hard seeing him replicate those numbers onwards. Most likely a team with a need for passing or a playoff team needing a sixth man is going to sign him away. Toronto has to re-sign other guys and it seems Vasquez is the odd man out.
Avery Bradley: The young lockdown defender will draw some interest from teams. However, what Boston does with him really depends on their other off season moves. If they are able to snag Gordon Hayward away from Utah they may not be willing to match a pricey contract offer. Teams may not be willing to shell out a lot of money for the young guard though. While he is one of the league’s top defenders and can play both guard positions, he is undersized for a shooting guard and has been injury prone so far in his career. Bradley is most likely to receive a contract offer in the same vein as Tony Allen, 20 million over four years. And with those kinds of offers it’s tough to see Boston not matching. Whether Bradley stays or goes entirely depends on what Boston does in the off season. Other possibilities: Chicago swings and misses on their other free agent targets and throws out a strong offer. Bradley is the type of player Chicago loves and if they want to risk playing with two injury prone starting guards then don’t be surprised if they take a look at the young guard.


