The Orlando Magic finished the 2014-15 season with another losing record and obtaining the 5th pick in the 2015 draft. Fans are still optimistic but it’s time to take another look at the Orlando Magic. Two and a half seasons after trading away Dwight Howard the future is still very uncertain in Orlando.
The last remaining players on the Magic roster from that trade are Moe Harkless and Nikola Vučević. Vučević has turned into a borderline all star while Harkless seems lost on the current roster. The Magic also collected numerous draft picks from the trade and have not even acquired all of them as of yet. But the roster constructed from these picks, trades, and young players seems a little jumbled to say the least. As of now the roster just doesn’t fit together. The team can be best described as a team full of position-less players. The hiring of new coach Scott Skiles is already being questioned but I believe this team will finally flourish under an experienced coach who will bring order to the young roster. These young players need a coach who will extract the most out of them and bring them together to look like some kind of team. This team desperately needed a coach who will figure out what each player brings to the team. Is Moe Harkless a part of the future? Should Tobias Harris be resigned? What position is Aaron Gordon? Who’s going to play next to Vučević if he can’t protect the basket?
Rob Hennigan, Orlando’s general manager, has been universally praised but he still has a lot of work ahead of him. So far the Magic have the brightest future of the Dwight Howard trade teams but Hennigan has had just as many misses as he’s had hits. While Orlando has faced several losing seasons since the trade the team was still competitive and fun to watch at times. But slowly the team that consisted of young budding talent mixed with savvy veterans was taken apart and traded away. This current team is the type of team who needs veterans teaching the young guys how to develop the right skillsets. JJ Redick, Glen Davis, Jameer Nelson, and Arron Afflalo are all gone. Last offseason Hennigan signed Channing Frye and Ben Gordon to fill those shoes and the results have been underwhelming to say the least. Frye is playing like a shell of himself and Gordon was a vet minimum guy who got paid 4.5 million. Orlando already had a big who can stretch the floor in Vučević so why sign another big who can shoot but can’t defend? Especially to 32 million over four years. Hennigan also traded Arron Afflalo for Evan Fournier. To date this was probably his worst trade yet. Hennigan should have traded Afflalo while his value was at his highest but waited till interest diminished and then traded Afflalo for a guy who barely played in Denver. Afflalo could have easily helped a team during the 2013-14 season but Hennigan demanded too much and then got too little.
The brightside to some of the recent questionable decisions is that the Magic still have a few guys with high upsides. Elfrid Payton had a good rookie season and shows good potential for a point guard. He’ll need to learn how to shoot because playing alongside Victor Oladipo to no one’s surprise has severely clogged the lane. If just one of these guys can become a great shooter this will become a deadly duo. Both of these guys are great at driving to the rim but Orlando’s roster is a weird mix of guys who cannot shoot and this leaves Oladipo and Payton with no room to operate. Defenders cut off their space and Oladipo and Payton aren’t able to perform what they are best at.
Aaron Gordon has ridiculous athleticism and an NBA motor but right now he doesn’t have a true position. He’s a Kenneth Faried type player. He’s undersized at the four and doesn’t have the shooting ability to stretch the floor. Can Gordon and Vučević play together? Right now not really but Gordon has plenty of time to improve. He has still become a decent shooter and he can find other ways to be effective around Vučević. Vučević can stretch the floor to that 16-18 foot range and Gordon can act as a quick cutter to the basket. This would allow Skiles to draw up some unique plays for the duo but Gordon needs to use his athleticism to become a good defender if he is to play alongside Vučević. The good news is that with Skiles as the coach now we can bet on both of these guys improving as defenders. Skiles has been known to wear down his players after a few years but other coaches rave about his coaching skills. It’s possible that Skiles just hasn’t found the right situation and he may just work out with this hybrid team. Skiles will challenge Gordon and you can expect him to grow plenty over the next few years. Vučević will probably finally become a decent rim protector. This team is on an upswing now and the future looks bright again. Skiles also has Evan Fournier and Kyle O’Quinn as his disposal. Both has turned into good rotational players. So what now?
Orlando will have to decide what to do with two of its wing players, Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless. Unless Skiles really takes a liking to Harkless he may be on his way out. There are already far too many wing players on this roster who don’t know how to shoot and in the modern NBA that just doesn’t work. This would be a shame as Harkless has lost some of his value this season and the trade market for a wing who is at best an average shooter just isn’t as good. But Harkless is young and maybe another team may want to gamble on his talents and length. Perhaps the Milwaukee Bucks. Orlando also has to see how much Tobias Harris is commanding on the open market. Teams will be interested as there aren’t many free agent small forwards on the market this offseason. Harris can also play the four in the right system. Harris does many things well but his fit on this team is questionable. He can really only shoot corners threes. Playing Oladipo, Payton, Harris, and Gordon all together is a spacing nightmare. Orlando’s best option may be signing him to a four year contract and then trading him at the next trade deadline for some useful pieces. Orlando can also choose to let the market set the value for Harris and then match whatever offer he receives. Harris is not a max player but may receive it anyways. Harris will no doubt improve as he gets older but Orlando may be best suited sniffing out sign and trade offers or trading him at a later date. Orlando can’t fill all of its cap space with guys who can’t shoot and they may need it to sign a few shooters to off season actually.
The Magic can have up to 30 million in cap space if they don’t retain several of their current players on partial guaranteed contracts and let Tobias Harris walk away. But a more realistic number is anywhere from 10-19 million. The Magic won’t be able to sign any of the top free agents but they may look to sign some of those middle tier guys. The Magic may sign a back-up center such as Kosta Koufos, Bismack Biyombo, or Brandan Wright. They may also to sign a couple shooters such as Jared Dudley (if he opts out) or Norris Cole (who is restricted but Payton needs a back up with Ridnour declining). Orlando can also sign a few riskier players such as Kendall Marshall, who tore his acl and also can’t shoot, but was a very good back up prior. Beyond that look for Orlando to fill out the roster with veterans such as CJ Watson and Richard Jefferson to help develop the younger guys.
Finally there’s the draft. There haven’t been any rumblings to come out as to who Orlando is interested in but look for them to explore Mario Hezonja, Justise Winslow, Kristaps, Porzingis, and even Willie Cauley-Stein. Orlando will have plenty of flexibility here and any one of these guys would be a great addition. The rule is to go with best available in the draft but these guys can almost go in any order and Orlando needs shooting and interior defense which these guys bring. Winslow may have the most potential out of these players but the Knicks are also intrigued by the dynamic wing player. Winslow would be an easy way to replace Harris. Porzingis is least likely to be taken because a duo of Vučević and Porzingis would be devastating for Orlando’s interior defense. They would become unplayable together. Choosing Cauley-Stein would lead Orlando to try playing Vučević at the four spot and he’s just not quick enough to keep up with quicker fours. Orlando’s best options may be choosing Hezonja for his scoring abilities and the chance that he can turn into an all star but facing the problem of having two starter quality shoot guards with Oladipo and Hezonja. Or Hezonja can turn out to be a great sixth man. It the grand scheme of things it’s a small problem to face. Or they can take Winslow, who also has potential all star in his future.
Skiles will help this team turn around and having another top 10 draft pick in a deep draft should help the rebuild. Orlando also has to spend the next couple years looking for free agent signings who can help the team. Orlando may be best advised to take the Indiana rebuild blueprint by drafting well and signing the missing pieces to turn them into a contending team. Right now Orlando doesn’t have their Paul George but all of these guys are still really young and tough to predict who will be good or great in the future. Oladipo is starting to look like he’ll top out as a great athletic defender, good at cutting but there’s other guys here who can turn into something special. This team is going up but are they anything beyond a future mediocre 6th-8th seed team? We don’t know yet. Time is ticking Orlando. Eventually you’re going to have to turn these young guys into a team so it’s time to start figuring out who you have.