The Straw Men

ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 30: Paul Millsap #4 and Kyle Korver #26 of the Atlanta Hawks celebrate after the game against the Portland Trail Blazers on January 30, 2015 at Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2015 NBAE (Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images)

Frauds, fakes, pretenders, gutless, the Atlanta Hawks have been called all these terms after being steamrolled by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Analysts were skeptical of the Hawks success in the regular season and that skepticism translated into the playoffs. The slower pace proved to be problematic for Atlanta against each opponent and one has to wonder if they would make the conference finals without John Wall injuring his hand.

The Hawks 4-0 loss against Cleveland has only made the “you can’t win without a superstar” crowd even more vocal. But perhaps there’s more than meets the eye. Fans forget that almost every starter from the Hawks was dealing with an injury in the playoffs. Their good luck with injuries finally ended at the most crucial time. Paul Millsap played with a bad shoulder. DeMarre Carroll hurt his knee pretty badly against Cleveland. Kyle Korver was taken out by Matthew Dellavedova. And lets not forget that Thabo Sefolosha (their best perimeter defender) was taken out by the NYPD. Atlanta’s streak of good luck ended as soon as the playoffs began and in the playoffs, luck definitely helps. Atlanta seemed lost against every team. Kyle Korver had plenty of good looks but couldn’t seem to take advantage of any of them. Teams exploited the undersized big men in Atlanta’s starting line up and out rebounded them. The Hawks had no idea how to recover and the idea that they needed a superstar never screamed louder. The Hawks could have used someone to make those additional plays but lets not be fooled by this simple argument that this would have turned things around. The Hawks were simply ineffective in the playoffs. They seemed hesitant, lost, and missed shots they made hundreds of times in the regular season. The Hawks have been in the playoffs for years but this group was new. The players and coach Mike Budenholzer never made it this far. They never experienced this kind of pressure from fans and the media and it cost them greatly.

Dec 20, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks shooting guard Kyle Korver (26) and small forward DeMarre Carroll (5) and point guard Jeff Teague (0) and center Al Horford (15) walk on the court against the Utah Jazz in the third quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Hawks probably won’t win the championships with this group but to discount them after one year in the playoffs is foolish and discredits all they have done. The Hawks probably need at least another all star on the team to make plays. While the Hawks won’t have much cap room this offseason if they want to retain the same core, they will have plenty of cap space next offseason with the huge cap jump. Atlanta has failed in luring a star to the team for years now but things have changed. Players will take notice of their great play and the ball movement. Atlanta also has great team chemistry, a large market, and a great coach. Maybe this can finally help them land that star they so desperately desire. The critics labeling the Hawks team lucky and a cinderella story are wrong. It’s easy to throw out such a simplistic argument after losing 4-0 but the Hawks also set their record for most wins and finally reach the Eastern Conference Finals without a single player averaging 17 points or more. Millsap was the team leader at 16.7 while only playing an average of 32.7 minutes per game. Their playoffs points leader was Jeff Teague with 16.8 at 33 minutes per game. Just based off those minutes per their all stars, this was a team that relied on depth and that lack of depth in the playoffs may have cost them the series against Cleveland rather than a lack of a star player. Also let’s get something straight here, Al Horford is definitely a star. Is he a superstar? No, but there is maybe one or two centers better than Horford in the entire league right now and that’s not even his true position.

The Hawks had the 7th best defensive efficiency in the league and tied for 6th when it comes to offense. Their defense was 5th in the playoffs but their offense dipped to 9th. This probably cost them going up against Cleveland, the 4th best defense in the playoffs. The Hawks were also out rebounded just about by everyone falling 27th in rebound rate and 12th in the playoffs out of 16 teams. The Cavs took total advantage with Tristan Thompson gobbling up rebounds while also unleashing the giant Timofey Mozgov on the undersized Hawks. Hawks didn’t know how to use their small size against Cleveland like the Warriors did in game 4 of the Finals. Instead the Hawks were run over by the Cavaliers, never looking weaker. The Hawks were pushed around and shut down by the giant Cavaliers team.

The Hawks will use about all of their cap space resigning Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll. Millsap will probably command the max somewhere around 18-19 million starting. And Carroll will probably be able to sign for at least 56-58 over four years. The Hawks will have to decide whether they want to tie up so much cap space for the next four years to these players. Millsap is almost a must resign. Millsap has gotten better every year despite not having the physical gifts other players at his position have had. His basketball IQ is off the charts and he added a three point game to his dangerous arsenal this year. Carroll’s skills can found elsewhere but this year’s free agent class lacks small forwards so the Hawks would either have to take a step back or try pulling off an impressive trade for a younger one. Perhaps the Warriors would be willing to listen to a David Lee and Harrison Barnes trade for Mike Scott, Thabo Sefolosha, and a couple picks to lower that insane tax bill Golden State is about to face? Or they can sign Carroll and try to pull off a major trade mid season to give themselves flexibility.

The Hawks also hold the 15th pick thanks to utilizing the pick swap they had from Brooklyn. Most mock drafts have the Hawks taking Bobby Portis or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Portis would be a great fit as another big man that can shoot while having a great motor. Hollis-Jefferson would bring perimeter defense as Sefolosha’s status is uncertain right now. Perhaps someone like Myles Turner slips to the Hawks as well. Beyond the near lottery pick the Hawks won’t have many options in free agency if they resign the two starters. One thing the Hawks desperately need, rebounding. The Hawks could use a traditional big man here or a back up power forward with better rebounding skills than Mike Scott. Pero Antic had a great season so he will probably be resigned and the Hawks can bet on Mike Muscala developing further after a great playoffs campaign. But their rebounding is their greatest weakness and the Hawks will explore the market for the type of guy who can keep their offense going and get a few extra rebounds.

Are the Hawks pretenders? All signs point to no. Will they be the top seed again and win 60 games? Most likely not. But this team isn’t going away. The Hawks will bet on continuous improvement from their young guys (Dennis Schroder, Mike Muscala) while finding ways for their starters to be more effective against tough defense. Look for new plays to exploit the slower games of the playoffs as well. The Hawks are knocking on that championship door and while they probably won’t be in the Finals next season, teams better be worried what will happen if they can draw a star player finally. The Hawks are now under the spotlight and will face tougher criticism but this team’s success was no fluke. The critics will continue to discuss the lack of a star on this stacked team and the Hawks have the opportunity to show everyone a team can win without a star player.

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