
Every season some NBA team comes out of nowhere to surprise the league and overachieves far more than anyone anticipated. This year the Playing Better Than They Actually Are Award goes to the Charlotte Hornets. Two years ago Charlotte overachieved constructing an offense around their low-post monster, Al Jefferson, and finally went from lottery team to playoff team. The very next year expectations were high and despite good health, the team was a disaster and ended up with the ninth worst record in the league. And here we are in the current season with the Charlotte Hornets on pace to have their best record since the 90’s!
They are torching defenses despite missing two of their best players. Defensive ace Michael Kidd Gilchrist is out for the year and former offensive weapon Al Jefferson is dealing with nagging injuries. The only major changes to the roster are Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lin. So how are they doing this without a superstar or even an all star? A new revamped offense concentrating on their personnel’s strengths. Charlotte’s all star is their coach, who somehow manages to change the offense and defense every year. They were smart for locking him up to an extension this season.
This team went from a crowded low post offense to a cutting and three point shooting team. Somehow losing their best players made this team even better. Charlotte is now 6th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive. That defense rating is even more surprising considering they’re missing their best defender and have no big man defending the paint. Charlotte relies on a rotating unit of Spencer Hawes, Cody Zeller, and Frank Kaminsky to protect the basket while Al Jefferson is out. None of these guys is even an average shot blocker but they’re making it work. Instead these big men help the offense run efficiently with smart passes. Jeremy Lin has as many assists from Spencer Hawes as he has from their starting point guard, Kemba Walker.
Speaking of Jeremy Lin, he is experiencing a total revival this season. No, this is not Linsanity 2.0 as those days are over. Instead, Lin has polished his game and has excelled in the backup point guard role. During his Linsanity phase in New York, Lin was a pick and roll master slicing defenses and making clutch shots. In Charlotte, he has learned when to make smart cuts and how to play off the ball while holding his own on defense. He’s doing this while on a super cheap contract.
Charlotte’s other big move in the offseason was trading for Nicolas Batum. Charlotte was criticized for the move initially due to giving up their 2014 lottery pick but Noah Vonleh has had a subpar season in Portland while Batum has exploded. Other team are kicking themselves for not trading for the Frenchman. Batum is averaging 16.5 points, 4.6 assists, and 6.5 rebounds. All above his career averages. He’s also having one of his best shooting seasons. Batum was always a bit of a swiss army knife, capable of doing some of everything but he floundered in Portland last season. The downside to this explosive play is that this may simply be a side effect of contract year play being in the last year of his current contract and giving Batum something in the tune of 18-20 million a year at this age may be risky. He may have also had a down year last year due to a nagging wrist injury and messy divorce. Charlotte has struggled bringing in large free agents and overpaying for a guy with a career average of 11 points per game may be tough to swallow for a small market team.
Currently Charlotte is set to have around 40 million in cap space this offseason but Batum’s cap hold will eat almost half of that. They’ll also only have that cap space if they let Al Jefferson and Marvin Williams walk in free agency. They’ll have a little more with Lin likely opting out of his contract. Charlotte’s biggest need is at power forward and they could throw a sizeable contract at Ryan Anderson or Terrence Jones or could move Gilchrist or Batum to power forward with a move towards small ball. Charlotte could also use an upgrade at center with Jefferson likely leaving in free agency.
Charlotte still has a long way to go as this is nowhere near a contending team. Right now they’re enjoying being in the playoff hunt with slumping attendance and a legendary owner demanding wins. Charlotte can’t afford to think in win now mode only. They need to develop young players and think wrong term. Drafting Frank Kaminsky was probably a mistake considering Justice Winslow was drafted right after him and they could have also had Devin Booker, who is shooting lights out. Boston also offered Charlotte up to six draft picks to get that no. 9 spot. Boston wanted Justice Winslow bad but Michael Jordan apparently wanted Kaminsky more than a fat kid wanted chocolate cake. Jordan still sticks his nose into personnel moves far too often and while Kaminsky isn’t a bust, is he really any better than any player Charlotte could have drafted in the teens? Charlotte has to make smarter picks in future drafts as their history has been spotty.
Charlotte also has to see if they can sustain this offense and defense long term. Kemba Walker is having arguably his best season of his career but history says he won’t be able to sustain his improved shooting. Charlotte will have to use the difficult strategy of improving internally while avoiding the lottery. History says this won’t be a contending team but the city of Charlotte has been starved of good professional basketball for far too long. They deserve a couple of overachieving seasons with this funky team. Hopefully they can make a couple smart signings again and fit MKG into the rotation without cramping their shooting too much.