The NBA salary cap is about to explode by a projected 20 million next season and players are readying to earn healthy bonuses. Agents are salivating at the thought of their mediocre player earning on average 18 million a year. But what if the opposite happens? What if the demand for bigger contracts leads to most teams sitting out a weak free agent class?

The current collective bargaining agreement between teams and players allowed small market teams to catch up with the big guys. Teams were penalized for over spending on free agents and front offices got smarter about who they signed to large contracts. That is all going  to change with the new TV money flowing into the system. Because the league will now collect a larger chunk of money from television, the salary cap will jump significantly. Due to the NBA’s revenue sharing system smaller teams will make more money. However, this doesn’t automatically mean that Milwaukee or Minnesota will jump at the opportunity to spend 100 million on contracts.

One of the large reasons the league went through a lockout last time is because teams are still losing money. Teams were claiming to be losing 5-20 million a year. An influx of extra cash is not going to cover those holes. The fact of the matter is that certain cities still struggle to draw in large crowds to see their games. Every team is getting smarter about how they spend their money and the Player’s Union had the opportunity to have the cap rise slowly. Instead, they chose a large leap from 70 million this season to an expected 90 for the 2016-17 season. There is no way most teams are ready for a 20 million jump in salary. Since the amount a team can spend on players is going up, naturally players expect to be paid more and this is exactly what the Player’s Union was hoping for. But teams are getting smarter with the way they spend their money. Teams aren’t going to spend 90 million on mediocre teams. If the union was expecting players such as Terrence Jones and Ryan Anderson to get contracts starting at 18-20 million a year, they’re in for a surprise.

Teams are going to spend the 2016 offseason in a holding pattern. the 2016 free agent class is weak and there is absolutely no reason most of these teams to go out in a spending frenzy. Sure, some team may be able to nab a player they wouldn’t normally be able to sign such as DeMar Derozan or Hassan Whiteside but beyond 3-4 teams, the small markets may just decide to sit out and spend that money on their own players. In the new agreement, if a team doesn’t reach a salary floor set by the NBA, that money is redistributed amongst its own players and you can bet that is exactly what small market teams will be doing a lot more often. They will choose to sit at the floor or below it if they realize their team cannot make the playoffs. Teams will hoard draft picks more often and try to develop young players rather than overpay mid-tier guys who will make a small impact on the team. This will negatively impact small market teams in the long run as large markets will be able to make money while spending a ton on free agents.

Since teams have gotten smarter about how they spend money this also leaves small market teams earning less from the revenue sharing system. The league is already pissed off that one of the top markets, the Philadelphia 76ers, is below the salary floor and contributing nothing to revenue sharing. Philadelphia has decided to tank to earn top draft picks while refusing to pay any free agents big money. If more teams decide to go this route teams such as Minnesota will start to lose even more money while being forced to pay out a set limit (70 million or so) every year despite possibly not doing well.

These small markets will also struggle keeping their own young players. Usually this is how less desirable markets such as Utah are able to stay competitive. Now they may have to decide whether to spend 20 million a year on a player who may either become an all star or never reach his potential. Tough decisions like this may lead to teams deciding to let their own players walk to greener pastures rather than risk overpaying a guy who may never develop into the all star that they’ll need. Is Evan Fournier worth 16-18 million a year? Does Memphis want to commit 145 million across 5 years to Michael Conley? Decisions for these small teams will only get tougher as every wrong move can chip away at their already small championship hopes. Players will take the most money they can get. Teams will dig further to find good players under cheap contracts. Teams will spend more time investing into the NBA’s D-League to find cheap young players rather than committing 5 million a year or so to veterans putting up identical numbers. Teams will be forced to hike the prices of tickets to cover their losses.

The league will have to adapt as it has done in the past. Smart small markets such as San Antonio have always been able to adapt with good decisions and patience. The league will change with this large influx of cash but the adaptation may be quite rough in the beginning stages. Teams will not go into spending sprees for mediocre players. Those mid-level players will suffer the most as always. Lebron James and Kevin Durant will earn more than ever and young players will most definitely be overpaid in order to stay on their current teams. Those role player positions on the team will now be filled with smarter signings and more obscure players from overseas or D-League teams. This jump in the salary cap may lead to the NBA’s biggest nightmare, another lockout and lost season. The biggest casualty in the ongoing battle between players and owners will be the fans.