The Grit and Grind Grizzlies are likely dead. No, Leonardo Dicaprio did not throw them off a cliff (not that you’re going to find a grizzly in Memphis). They were murdered by modern basketball and age. A slow back to the basket team without three point shooting can’t survive against the Warriors and San Antonios of the modern NBA. On top of that their best player is out for the season with a broken foot. Things are looking grim in Bluff City.

Memphis is in a very difficult situation because their current roster isn’t built for the modern NBA and roster consists mostly of older players with no rising star. They’re also one of the smallest markets and have a history of struggling to attract free agents to sign there. Memphis can’t afford to rebuild entirely through free agency. This is likely why they gutted a large part of the team to obtain draft picks. Analysts questioned the move by Memphis to trade Courtney Lee for picks and PJ Hairston but Memphis is trying to collect assets right now. Memphis apparently didn’t like their chances of resigning Lee in the offseason. Jeff Green never really worked out for this time and they got what they could for him.

The days of Memphis competing in the Western Conference are over. People seem to forget that this team was in the Western Conference Finals just a couple seasons ago. San Antonio obliterated them but they seemed poised to continue contending with small changes to the team. Unfortunately, Memphis never locked up the shooters in needed to fight the league juggernauts and now it seems too late. This doesn’t mean a slower defensive team can’t still win a championship. Everyone seems to think the Golden State Warriors are the new rule but they’re an exception. The Warriors have special players and that is why they are so successful. Replicating their formula will be extremely difficult and with every team drifting towards one style of play, it’s a matter of time before another team takes advantage of this and uses it against them. If teams play small and can’t defend a post up monster, it will be a problem. If teams move entirely from offensive rebounds someone will exploit it. There is room in the NBA for a team like the Grizzlies but their flaws were just too much to overcome. While you can use a bruiser inside to get points, you still need shooters nowadays. Otherwise, teams will clog up the lane and points will be too hard to come by. The Grizzlies rolled out starting line ups with three non-shooters. The play below illustrates the issues Memphis had with its offense and players. Marc Gasol would enter a post up and rather than watching the outside shooters, the Nuggets players crowded the middle not respecting the guys on the three point line enough to move out there.

The Grizzlies struggled on offense because it was always too hard to put up points in their system. One or two defenders would stick to their men on the perimeter while the other three would gang up on Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. They could still make Randolph and Gasol work on one team. Unfortunately that probably comes at the expense of Randolph. Gasol is a terrific passing big man and with the right stretch four plugged next to him, could make the team a nightmare to defend. Gasol has never played next to a true stretch four and his abilities have always been somewhat limited with Randolph lurking near him. At this point in his career Randolph is much better suited to bully backup bigs as a reserve.

Despite having a down year Marc Gasol is still one of the best centers in the league. He can do everything short of knocking down three pointers. But this man can help facilitate the offense while also locking down the paint on the other end. There’s a reason teams desperately wanted to sign him despite the changing game. With a stretch four Gasol can operate in the paint while also being one of the best passing big men. If teams try to double up on him he has the crafty moves to still score but also has the vision to pass it out to the right man. This is what Memphis has been missing and keeping them from being deadly all those years. If Gasol was able to pass the ball out to a Kyle Korver like shooter, teams would be scrambling to try and defend the three point line and the paint at the same time. Gasol is also an excellent screener and could use his big body for hand off passes leading to the basket. But with Randolph always playing next to him that extra defender was always able to slide his body into the lane to defend guards cutting to the basket.

If the Grizzlies played more of a flow offense with Gasol in the middle and shooters stretching the floor and making the right cuts, Memphis could punish other teams on the offensive end while still putting together a top defensive team. Memphis has already experimented with a new offense with Gasol out. Memphis has decided to play smaller and quicker. This has opened up the floor for the guards. Memphis has won 4 of 5 so far without Gasol and the offense has been working but it’s such a small sample size.

The improved spacing has allowed Memphis to knock down more threes without losing their defensive identity. However, Memphis is bound to see a drop off in their defense without Gasol and now losing Brendan Wright for 1-2 weeks. The Grizzlies are likely staring at a first round playoff sweep or a high lottery pick. This makes their situation even more complicated as they will lose their first round pick if they fall out of the playoffs. Memphis ownerships likely wants the Grizzlies to make the playoffs for the extra revenue but one could argue this is the ideal year to give up a pick with a weak draft class. Memphis should take this time to figure out how good their younger players are. But missing the playoffs could lead to Michael Conley questioning his future in M-town.

Michael Conley’s impending free agency brings a big dilemma for Memphis. Conley can sign a five year 145 million contract with Memphis. But does Memphis want to commit its future to a point guard who will be 29 when the season begins? Afterall, point guards don’t age well. Is a small market team like Memphis ready to commit more than half of its cap space to two guys around their thirties who aren’t good enough to be the no. 1 option on a championship team? Conley will attract a lot of interest from other teams as the point guard position will be in need with few options this offseason. This is the problem for a team in such a small market. Memphis will never attract a star to sign there as a free agent but might not have the money to resign the closest thing they’ve had to one. The front office has come out and said that they intend on keeping Conley in Memphis but these kinds of promises have been made before. Can Memphis afford losing Conley? Probably not but they will consider their options. They can probably have 80% of Conley’s play for half the price but basketball isn’t that simple. It’s not like putting a fantasy league together. Memphis probably wants to avoid discouraging their star player, Marc Gasol, by letting his friend and teammate walk in free agency. Relationships are important, ask the Houston Rockets how well throwing players together works.

Look for Memphis to resign Conley possibly to a contract just under the max to give themselves better flexibility while giving Conley the security of that fifth contract year only they can offer. Memphis will still have close to the max to offer in free agency if they renounce some cap holds and waive Lance Stephenson. Look for them to try and sign some young players to cheaper contracts. Memphis should also try and fill one of the large holes left on the wing with their trades this season. Loul Deng would be a nice fit on this roster but he has a lot of miles on his body and wouldn’t help Memphis move towards youth. Evan Fournier would be a great fit alongside Michael Conley but it would likely take a max contract to swipe him away from Orlando and Fournier hasn’t shown being worth a max contract outside of a few games. Memphis is more likely to go down the safe route and sign Jared Dudley to a reasonable contract but don’t be surprised if they pay good money to bring in a stretch big man. Terrence Jones and Mirza Teletovic should both be available for the right money. Spending most of their money on free agents like Dudley and Teletovic is probably the best a small city like Memphis can hope for right now. It wouldn’t bring them any closer to a championship but it would stop the bleeding while Memphis looks for a long term solution.

Getting rid of Conley and restarting probably isn’t the right decision for Memphis right now. You don’t tank when you get a star in a small market and Memphis currently doesn’t have all of its picks to be tanking. They should stay the course and focus on rebuilding the offense and looking for the right coach to make this team a contender again.